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In new forecasts, the Army Corps of Engineers – Detroit District shows all five Great Lakes expected to be below water levels reached last year. Superior is consolidating above its long-term average in a way not seen elsewhere in the system, though. The primary reason is weather related. Superior is getting significantly more rain on a relative basis than its southern counterparts. In April, it got 127% of its monthly average precipitation, compared to between 63 and 84 percent for the others. Add in seasonably cool temperatures and that is enough to partially offset a mild, dry winter.
Over the past year, all Great Lakes have received less rain and snowfall than normal, ranging from 11 to 20 percent below average. Water levels are cyclical throughout the year, and summer traditionally sees a rise, which is already underway.
While no records are expected in the near future, the Corps won’t rule out the possibility that the most recent long-run cycle is still ongoing. The mild drought of the last year follows record precipitation for much of the region.
